AFC Championship

Balt @ Pitt
Sun 630pm
Pitt -5.5

- #1 and #2 D; both teams can stop the run
- simple analysis; neither team will be able to run the ball at all...all on the shoulders of the QB
- two teams extremely tight and can go either way
- should come down to a FG; take the points and Ravens

NFC Championship

Phil @ Ariz
Sun 3pm
Phil -3.5

- battle of birds that not many expected in the NFC Champ
- Uggles 5th NFC Champ in 8 years but 1-3 in previous 4 champ games
- Ariz found a running game and a defense in playoff time; looks a lot like the Indy Colts SB team from a few years back
- Phil tough D will have a lot of trouble with two of the best physical receivers in Fitzgerald and Boldin
- Warner is a winner and McNabb is not; simple math take Ariz at home

Sun Div games

perfect Sat; keep it going with Sun games

Phil @ NYG
Sun 1pm
NYG -4

- 3rd time for these div foes this year; Uggles come in as the hot team
- G-Men needed the week off to rest and get healthy; Jacobs in practice this week looks the best he has been for months
- SB Champs at home in cold climate grind it out game
- Giants will rush the ball all day long; even if they are stopped early they will keep pounding the ball and keep the Eagles D on the field
- game will be of field position and like y'day team that makes the less mistakes will win
- this should be tight game with no surprises
- take Giants at home


SD @ Pitt
Sun 445pm
Pitt -6

- freezing cold in Pitt
- Pitt is 6-1 last 7 vs SD but is 0-2 playoffs vs the Bolts
- SD won't move the ball on that awful field and in the cold
- Pitt will try to pass the ball against the #31 ranked pass D but Indy tried that and the Chargers were able to contain Peyton in that WC game
- Roth coming off concussion; how effective will he be when he will be on his ass all game long
- bad feeling about this game that SD will find a way to get it done
- take the points and the Super-Chargers

Sat Div games

Balt @ Tenn
430pm Sat
Tenn -3

- teams mirror each other; big time D with a pounding running game
- there is 1 huge concern and that is Kevin Mawae is out and 2nd yr center Leroy Harris is in at center for the Titans
- Ravens D is organized chaos and the center is responsible for the blocking schemes and this sets up Ravens D to have huge day against the Titans OL
- Haynesworth and Vandenbosch are back but how healthy and how long will they be able to last against a Ravens no-huddle offense that keeps you on your toes
- last win by Tenn was before Flacco's maturation
- better team is the Ravens and this game sets up perfectly in the matchups
- like last week the best player on the field is Ed Reed; look for at least 1 big play from him again against old Kerry Collins
- Ravens outright


Ariz @ Car
815pm Sat
Car -9.5

- Ariz 0-5 coming east this year but their best game was the 27-23 loss at Car; in that game Cards botche an XP and missed on fake FG; if they make those two kicks then this game was even
- Car 8-0 at home; only unbeaten team in NFL at home this year
- Ariz found the Edge last week; were they hiding him all season long
- Car will not be able to stop the pass of Warner and if Cards can get a quick lead then it takes out the Car running game
- wild matchup of two distinctly different teams
- let's take the points and take the Cards

Balt (11-5) @ Mia (11-5)
Sun 1pm
Balt -3.5

- Ravens D dominated the Wildcat formation in Balt-Mia earlier meeting this year
- game is on Pennington's shoulders; Balt D is too tough to run or pass against
- the playmakers in this game are on the Balt D side with Lewis and best safety in football Reed
- Flacco will not need to win this game; they will grind it out and kick FG relying on their D to take care of the game
- Fins are happy just to go from 1-15 to 11-5 and div winner
- take Ravens to dominate this game

Phil (9-6-1) @ Minn (10-6)
Sun 430pm
Phil -3

- interesting matchup as Philly will not be able to run the ball against #1 rush D
- Vikes #25 pass O will not be able to pass against #3 pass D of Eagles
- AP is tough to stop as his runs are 50/50 on left/right side of the line
- Eagles blitz to stop the run but if they choose the wrong side and AP gets to the 2nd layer he can burn them for huge runs
- expect Vikes to come out and let the Eagles blitz and throw some screens over them to get AP into space
- McNabb will throw about 70% of the time in this game and Westbrook will be used more in passing game than running in between those big Vikes tackles
- interesting matchup to see which offense can move the ball
- take Vikes at home

Onto Wild Card Saturday

Recap
Week 17 6-9-1
Overall 126-124-6

Atla (11-5) @ Ariz (9-7)
Sat 430pm
Line: Ariz -1
- Atla coming in as a hot team at 8-1 in their last 9 games
- game is going to come down to who can do the most with the least
- Ariz will be able to throw the ball against Atla young corners and #21 pass D
- Atla will be able to rush the ball against Ariz #16 rush D
- if Ariz can run the ball or Atla can pass the ball will determine this game
- young vs experience; big edge to Ariz with Warner and Edge come playoff time
- Ariz will try to jump the Falcons and get up early forcing Atla into a pass first mentality; Atla does not do well coming from behind
- Atla will try to grind it out and keep Ariz D on the field for long stretches
- Abraham will be double-teamed by Ariz and expect Warner to have big day in the air throwing to 3 1000+ yard receivers
- Ryan has had a great rookie season but has only passed for 300+ yards twice this year
- if Ariz can contain Turner with 8/9 man fronts then Cards can take this game at home
- take experience over youth; Cards to win a shootout

Indy (12-4) @ SD (8-8)
Sat 8pm
Line: SD -1
- two of the hottest teams in football going in; Indy won 9 straight; SD 5 straight to take the div from Den
- LT and Gates are questionable going into the game
- Peyton has carried this team on his own with a make shift OL most of the season and absolutely zero rushing attack
- to beat Indy you need to get pressure on Peyton; this is a huge weakness of SD D...no pass rush
- Bob Sanders healthy makes the Indy D a different package; forget the numbers of the regular season when Sanders is healthy this is a great unit
- Indy wins easily

NFL - Week 17

Well we have come down to the last day of the regular season and there are about 60 different scenarios that can play out for the playoffs...this is why we love the NFL?

My Jets might not make the playoff dance so here is a look at the Flight Crew as a Favre going out present.

Week 16 8-8

Overall 120-115-5

Onto the final games:

StL (2-13) @ Atla (10-5)

1pm - Atla -14

- Atla already in playoffs; a great story for this season

- Atla win and Car loss and they win division and get bye

- StL 0-9 in last 9 games and given up the season

- Turner should have huge game against Rams #28 rush D

- if Atla win division it will be a 5 yr run of last to first in the NFC South

- Atla 6-1; make it 7-1 and cover a Rams team that is already defeated

Oak (4-11) @ TB (9-6)

1pm TB -12.5

- ok too much talk on the Raidahs are going to win this game - huh?

- yes TB has lost 3 straight but winning teams get up for the big ones; Bucs need this one

- TB win and Dal loss and in playoffs

- question is whether the Bucs will cover which I believe they will do

Clev (4-11) @ Pitt (11-4)

1pm Pitt -11

- Crennel is his last game (probably) is 0-7 vs Pitt; when you are hired to coach a bad team you need to be able to beat the beasts of your division...this isn't good enough

- Pitt locked in as #2 seed

- this game is about motivation; Pitt wants to rest their injuries

- take Brownies to cover and win this one outright

- UPSET SPECIAL

Car (11-4) @ NO (8-7)

1pm Car -1.5

- NFC South home teams are 11-0 within the div

- Car win and Atla loss and they win div and #2 seed and a bye next week

- Car loss and Atla win and Panthers are #5 seed and on the road in wild card week

- Brees needs 401 yards passing to pass Marino single season record

- NO might not even care about winning the game and try to throw on every down to get Brees the record

- NO in upset as Brees breaks record

NYG (12-3) @ Minn (9-6)

1pm Minn -7

- NYG has nothing to play for as #1 NFC seed; need to get banged up players healthy

- Minn win and Chi loss and Vikes win div

- take Vikes at home as G-Men should be in reserve mode by halftime

Tenn (13-2) @ Indy (11-4)

1pm Tenn -3

- neither team has anything to play for and locked into their playoff positions

- let's take Colts in revenge and keep momentum into next week game at AFC West div winner

Chi (9-6) @ Hou (7-8)

1pm Hou -3

- Chi with win and Minn loss and Bears win NFC North

- Chi win and Dal/TB loss and Bears are wildcard

- Chi #28 pass D will have trouble containing Andre Johnson; the best WR in football

- big factor could be Chi leads league in takeaways and Hou turns ball over too much

- take Texans at home in close game

Det (0-15) @ GB (5-10)

1pm GB -11

- GAME OF THE YEAR

- who cares about the playoff teams; let go LIONS 0-16

- get this Det-GB same division and Lions have not won in GB since 1991

- Lions huge incentive to win but they are just so bad; let's take Lions to cover but lose and set history

KC (2-13) @ Cin (3-11-1)

1pm Cin -3.5

- KC could be best 2-13 in NFL history

- KC are playing well but seem to find a way to lose the game late in 4th quarter

- Cin won 2 in a row; that's enough for them

- Thigpen 800 yards offense; 6 TD in last 3 games

- take Chefs on road in mild upset

NE (10-5) @ Buff (7-8)

1pm NE -5.5

- woke up this morning the wind howling at my windows; check the tv and same in Buffy

- NE win/Mia loss - div for NE

- NE win/Mia win/Balt loss - w/c for NE

- NE 3-0 last 3 games; Buff 2-7 last 9 games

- NE 10-0 last 10 in Buff

- question is not whether Pats will win this game; it is how much they cover due to the high winds

- take Pats to cover on 1 TD on the ground

Jax (5-10) @ Balt (10-5)

415pm Balt -11

- Balt win and in as W/C

- Gerrard sacked 41 times this season

- Balt not allowed 100 yard rusher all season long

- perfect matchup for Ravens to get in playoffs; no contest

Sea (4-11) @ Ariz (8-7)

415pm Ariz -6.5

- Ariz look nothing like a div winner these last few weeks

- Sea season is over; Holmgrean got his going out win and a Harley from the team during the week

- Cards need some good feeling heading into the playoffs

- Cards get their air game back on track; take Cards big

Wash (8-7) @ SF (6-9)

415pm SF -3

- Wash 2-5 last 7 games; SF 4-2 last 6 games

- Singletary has the D playing much better only allowing 17pts/gm in last 4 games

- so easy pick take Niners; WRONG

- take Skins better team from much better div

- Wash outright

Mia (10-5) @ NYJ (9-6)

415pm NYJ -2.5

- both teams will know the NE/Buff score before playing

- my Jets gut feels that the Pats will find a way to win the division

- with that said the Jets must win this game at home

- Mia win and they are in and loss they are out

- NYJ win and NE loss and Jets are div winner

- NYJ win/NE win and Balt loss and Jets w/c

- Jets get back to basics and find a way to get Favre a win going out

Dal (9-6) @ Phil (8-6-1)

415pm Phil -1

- Dal 0-8 last 8 years in final game of season

- Romo 5-10 in Dec

- Dal win and Boys are in playoffs

- Phil win and lots of help to get in

- Phil D is playing great down the stretch allowing only 2.9 yds/carry last 6 games and only 2 TD in last 3 games

- Romo getting no protection from OL

- Uggles use the Ravens game plan and keep the Boys out of playoffs

Den (8-7) @ SD (7-8)

815pm SD -8

- Sunday niter; win and you win division

- Rivers 9 TD/1 INT in last 3 straight wins

- too much talk about SD winning this game; did anyone see how bad this D was early this season

- both teams cannot stop anything on D

- big game; Shanahan or Turner???

- take Shanny and Broncos to upset and win the DIV

Keefer