NFL - Week 17

Well we have come down to the last day of the regular season and there are about 60 different scenarios that can play out for the playoffs...this is why we love the NFL?

My Jets might not make the playoff dance so here is a look at the Flight Crew as a Favre going out present.

Week 16 8-8

Overall 120-115-5

Onto the final games:

StL (2-13) @ Atla (10-5)

1pm - Atla -14

- Atla already in playoffs; a great story for this season

- Atla win and Car loss and they win division and get bye

- StL 0-9 in last 9 games and given up the season

- Turner should have huge game against Rams #28 rush D

- if Atla win division it will be a 5 yr run of last to first in the NFC South

- Atla 6-1; make it 7-1 and cover a Rams team that is already defeated

Oak (4-11) @ TB (9-6)

1pm TB -12.5

- ok too much talk on the Raidahs are going to win this game - huh?

- yes TB has lost 3 straight but winning teams get up for the big ones; Bucs need this one

- TB win and Dal loss and in playoffs

- question is whether the Bucs will cover which I believe they will do

Clev (4-11) @ Pitt (11-4)

1pm Pitt -11

- Crennel is his last game (probably) is 0-7 vs Pitt; when you are hired to coach a bad team you need to be able to beat the beasts of your division...this isn't good enough

- Pitt locked in as #2 seed

- this game is about motivation; Pitt wants to rest their injuries

- take Brownies to cover and win this one outright

- UPSET SPECIAL

Car (11-4) @ NO (8-7)

1pm Car -1.5

- NFC South home teams are 11-0 within the div

- Car win and Atla loss and they win div and #2 seed and a bye next week

- Car loss and Atla win and Panthers are #5 seed and on the road in wild card week

- Brees needs 401 yards passing to pass Marino single season record

- NO might not even care about winning the game and try to throw on every down to get Brees the record

- NO in upset as Brees breaks record

NYG (12-3) @ Minn (9-6)

1pm Minn -7

- NYG has nothing to play for as #1 NFC seed; need to get banged up players healthy

- Minn win and Chi loss and Vikes win div

- take Vikes at home as G-Men should be in reserve mode by halftime

Tenn (13-2) @ Indy (11-4)

1pm Tenn -3

- neither team has anything to play for and locked into their playoff positions

- let's take Colts in revenge and keep momentum into next week game at AFC West div winner

Chi (9-6) @ Hou (7-8)

1pm Hou -3

- Chi with win and Minn loss and Bears win NFC North

- Chi win and Dal/TB loss and Bears are wildcard

- Chi #28 pass D will have trouble containing Andre Johnson; the best WR in football

- big factor could be Chi leads league in takeaways and Hou turns ball over too much

- take Texans at home in close game

Det (0-15) @ GB (5-10)

1pm GB -11

- GAME OF THE YEAR

- who cares about the playoff teams; let go LIONS 0-16

- get this Det-GB same division and Lions have not won in GB since 1991

- Lions huge incentive to win but they are just so bad; let's take Lions to cover but lose and set history

KC (2-13) @ Cin (3-11-1)

1pm Cin -3.5

- KC could be best 2-13 in NFL history

- KC are playing well but seem to find a way to lose the game late in 4th quarter

- Cin won 2 in a row; that's enough for them

- Thigpen 800 yards offense; 6 TD in last 3 games

- take Chefs on road in mild upset

NE (10-5) @ Buff (7-8)

1pm NE -5.5

- woke up this morning the wind howling at my windows; check the tv and same in Buffy

- NE win/Mia loss - div for NE

- NE win/Mia win/Balt loss - w/c for NE

- NE 3-0 last 3 games; Buff 2-7 last 9 games

- NE 10-0 last 10 in Buff

- question is not whether Pats will win this game; it is how much they cover due to the high winds

- take Pats to cover on 1 TD on the ground

Jax (5-10) @ Balt (10-5)

415pm Balt -11

- Balt win and in as W/C

- Gerrard sacked 41 times this season

- Balt not allowed 100 yard rusher all season long

- perfect matchup for Ravens to get in playoffs; no contest

Sea (4-11) @ Ariz (8-7)

415pm Ariz -6.5

- Ariz look nothing like a div winner these last few weeks

- Sea season is over; Holmgrean got his going out win and a Harley from the team during the week

- Cards need some good feeling heading into the playoffs

- Cards get their air game back on track; take Cards big

Wash (8-7) @ SF (6-9)

415pm SF -3

- Wash 2-5 last 7 games; SF 4-2 last 6 games

- Singletary has the D playing much better only allowing 17pts/gm in last 4 games

- so easy pick take Niners; WRONG

- take Skins better team from much better div

- Wash outright

Mia (10-5) @ NYJ (9-6)

415pm NYJ -2.5

- both teams will know the NE/Buff score before playing

- my Jets gut feels that the Pats will find a way to win the division

- with that said the Jets must win this game at home

- Mia win and they are in and loss they are out

- NYJ win and NE loss and Jets are div winner

- NYJ win/NE win and Balt loss and Jets w/c

- Jets get back to basics and find a way to get Favre a win going out

Dal (9-6) @ Phil (8-6-1)

415pm Phil -1

- Dal 0-8 last 8 years in final game of season

- Romo 5-10 in Dec

- Dal win and Boys are in playoffs

- Phil win and lots of help to get in

- Phil D is playing great down the stretch allowing only 2.9 yds/carry last 6 games and only 2 TD in last 3 games

- Romo getting no protection from OL

- Uggles use the Ravens game plan and keep the Boys out of playoffs

Den (8-7) @ SD (7-8)

815pm SD -8

- Sunday niter; win and you win division

- Rivers 9 TD/1 INT in last 3 straight wins

- too much talk about SD winning this game; did anyone see how bad this D was early this season

- both teams cannot stop anything on D

- big game; Shanahan or Turner???

- take Shanny and Broncos to upset and win the DIV

Keefer

GB @ CHI - Monday Niter

GB (5-9) @ Chi (8-6)

Line: Chi -4

O/U: 41

- cold cold cold; temps in the teens...wind chill in the negatives

- GB won first meeting 37-3 when Chi only went 3/13 on 3rd down conversions

- since that last game teams have gone different directions; GB is 0-4 in their last 4 games while Bears are 3-1 in last 4

- Orton played hurt in that last game had almost zero mobility and the Pack took advantage of his lack of mobility

- GB has 6 losses by 4 pts or less; winning teams win those close games (see Indy)

- question comes down to will GB do what Buffy, Wash, Sea did on Sunday; come up big against a team trying to get into the playoffs

- the cold will make this a ground game and this is where the Bears have the advantage

- Chi D is #7 against the run while GB is #26

- Forte will be the key; can he go in the cold

- originally liked Chi but leaning towards the Pack now; the bet actually is the UNDER

Keefer

NFL Week 16 - Sunday

Quick Recap

Week 15 8-6-2

Overall 112-107-5

Week 16 (so far) 2-0

As usual in big game Romo throws a dud...Dal loss clinches Car playoff berth.

NFL gets both #1 and #2 teams in each conference playing each other this weekend with home field throughout the playoffs on the line. This week looks like a weekend for the home dogs and the weather; cold and windy across a lot of the US. Let's take a look at the games:

Cin (2-11-1) @ Clev (4-10)

Line: Clev -2.5

- image above sums up this game; windy/snowy in Battle (oops these teams don't battle) of Ohio

- amazing Clev leading league with 22 INT

- Clev 0-4 last 4 games

- Cincy looks like they are actually playing hard now for Lewis' job

- take Bungles as dog

Pitt (11-3) @ Tenn (12-2)

Line: Pitt -2

- as I said in this space last week Tenn is the worse 12 win team I have seen in a very long time

- only chance Tenn would have is with Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch playing; both are OUT

- Steelers a better team period; Steelers easy

SF (5-9) @ StL (2-12)

Line: SF -5.5

- Singletary won his first game as Head Coach against Rams earlier this season

- last game vs SF Jackson (StL-RB) was out

- Rams should be able to take advantage of a weak Niners secondary

- Rams 0-5 against the NFC West

- Niners have had their big wins this year already

- take Rams as dogs at home

SD (6-8) @ TB (9-5)

Line: TB -3.5

- Rivers leads AFC in TD passes and he gets passed over for Pro Bowl for Favre???

- only 1 western team has travelled to eastern time zone and won (SF over Buff)

- TB has not lost at home

- TB have had trouble tackling lately giving up big runs but LT is not the same back

- take Bucs to stay unbeaten at home

NO (7-7) @ Det (0-14)

Line: NO -7

- I really want to see Lions go 0-16 but this looks like their spot for a win

- Det OL is playing decent and Calvin Johnson is the best player in this game

- Lions not only cover the line but win their first game

- UPSET SPECIAL

Mia (9-5) @ KC (2-12)

Line: Mia -3.5

- warm weather Fins travel to cold windy KC with temps to be in the teens...brrrrrrr!!!!!

- Mia is winning with mirrors; offense in red zone in last 3 games 0 TD 8 FG; that doesn't get it done to win a division

- SF last week outplayed Mia but couldn't put points on the board

- another home dog to take this week; Chefs to win outright

Ariz (8-6) @ NE (9-5)

Line: NE -7.5

- Ariz div clinched have little incentive for anything rest of season

- NE will control the game

- only thing that might stop NE from covering is the weather; winter storm warning - snow/ice

- like the Pats to cover but if you bet the game check weather on the field and maybe buy a few points off the 7.5 line

Buff (6-8) @ Den (8-6)

Line: Den -6.5

- Den clinches AFC West with win

- cold, temp in teens but Bills are a cold weather team

- Buff 1-7 in last 8 games

- Buff can control clock in this game against the weak Den "D"

- Bills D gets zero pressure on QB so need to keep Cutler on the bench

- Bills will show up with some pride and upset the Den title celebrations

NYJ (9-5) @ Sea (3-11)

Line: NYJ -3.5

- oh this game scares me being a Jets fan

- snow in Seattle?; I grew up 3 hrs north in Vancouver, BC and Dec snow is just strange...where is the rain?

- Jets are 0-3 on their western trips the losses were to SD/Oak/SF who are a combined 14-28

- last time Favre threw a TD pass over 20 yards was in week 4

- Jets better bring their A game from their D as they got a gift win from Buffy last weekend

- Hawks win outright as another home dog gets it done

Hou (7-7) @ Oak (3-11)

Line: Hou -7

- wouldn't you want to see this Texans in the playoffs; they are playing great down the stretch

- Texans win last 2 games they get their first ever winning season

- key matchup: Mario Williams 11 sacks against an Oak OL that has given up 37 sacks

- Slaton 3 consecutive 100+ yds games and going against #24 rush D

- take Texans to continue the roll

Atla (9-5) @ Minn (9-5)

Line: Minn -3

- my BEST BET and UPSET SPECIAL last week came thru big time

- Minn clinches NFC North with win

- both teams have a physical rushing game and want to control the ground

- problem for Falcons is they can't stop the run and it will AP all-day long

- Pat Williams is out for Minny but Abraham is questionable for the Falcons

- take Vikes at home

Phil (8-5-1) @ Wash (7-7)

Line: Phil -4.5

- two teams going in opposite directions

- Wash 1-5 L6 games

- Phil 3-0 L3 and usual Andy Reid has them peaking in Dec (unlike Cowboys)

- Phil D only allowing 56.7 yds/gm on the ground in last 3 straight wins

- take Uggles at home to continue the roll

Car (11-3) @ NYG (11-3)

Line: NYG -3

- #1 and #2 in NFC battle for home field advantage throughout playoffs

- Car 7-1 L8 games; NYG 0-2 L2 games

- Delhomme makes mistakes on the road; 3 TD 7 INT on road

- take G-Men to get it righted at home

BETS

Pitt -2 (BEST)

NE -6.5 (buy 1 pt depending on weather)

Hou -7

Minn -3

Phil -4.5

WEATHER BETS

Ariz @ NE Under 44.5

Keefer

Balt @ Dal - Sat Niter

Balt @ Dal Dal -4

- Dal need to keep winning to have any playoff chances

- Dal only had 218 yds offense in last week's win vs G-Men

- Dal OL is slow and Ravens D is quick and will punish Romo

- Romo has that excapeability but will make mistakes (see end of Pitt game)

- Boys need this game but Ravens are a better team and defense travels well

- take the upset and Ravens +4

Indy @ Jax Thurs niter

Indy @ Jax Indy -6
- Indy on a roll despite injuries in/out of that lineup
- Marvin Harrison out, Addai in but not starting, Sanders in
- Indy last game vs Jax gave up 236 yds rush to Jax but this is different rush D with Sanders in the lineup
- Indy 7-0 L7 gms; 5 wins by 6 points or less...winning those tight games
- Jax secondary giving up big plays; Peyton should have another big day
- incentive - Indy clinches playoff berth with win
- take Colts and give the points

NFL Week 15

Week 14 7-9
Overall 104-101-3
Week 15 0-0-1 (after thurs push)

Onto rest of Week 15

Motivation is what drives teams this time of year; teams that are out of it will they play hard as the spoilers or lay down. Teams that already in or battling for playoffs will they come up big at the toughest time of year. This is where you separate the pretenders from the contenders; let's get it rolling for Week 15.

GB (5-8) @ Jax (4-9) GB -2.5
- two playoff teams from a year ago both with hugely disappointing seasons
- GB losing at Lambeau with regularity and Jax since losing both starting guards and center early in the year have never found any consistent offense
- Jax gives up big pass plays; favours Rodgers air game
- Jax no passing game of their own; Gerrard only 11 TD passing against a GB secondary that has 18 INT
- hard to know who is motivated in this one
- take the points and Jax wins at home

Det (0-13) @ Indy (9-4) Indy -17
- 100% mismatch
- only thing Det has going for them is Calvin Johnson and Indy has only given up 1 TD all season over 20 yards; no TD allowed in any form in last 2
- give up the points Indy keeps rolling

Wash (7-6) @ Cin (1-11-1) Wash -7
- Skins playoff hopes are pretty much done for; after 6-2 start are 1-4 since
- Portis called out his coach Zorn last week and is running hurt
- Cin 12 turnovers in last 6 games
- Wash is the better team but has Zorn lost this team now
- windy conditions could play havoc with kicking games
- take Bungles to cover

TB (9-4) @ Atla (8-5) Atla -3
- Home teams in NFC South are 10-0 in divisional games
- TB coming off short week losing @ Car last Monday Nite
- last matchup TB had 4 sacks and 2 INT against Ryan
- Turner only 42 yards rushing last game vs TB
- Atla problems stopping run last week in NO
- this Falcons team is just different inside that dome; take Falcons in close one

SF (5-8) @ Mia (8-5) Mia -6
- can SF win 3 straight against AFC East teams; can the Niners be the team that determines the AFC East champ
- Mia 6-1 in last 7
- SF 3-1 under Mike Singletary
- SF don't travel much to Mia and haven't won there since the mid 70s
- warm/windy conditions which shouldn't affect "The Chad" as he can't throw past the line of scrimmage anyways
- I can't see SF coming up with 3 big games in a row; travel across country will wear them out; take Fish

Sea (2-11) @ StL (2-11) Sea -2.5
- here is the ultimate motivation game; who wants this one more
- StL have thrown in the towel and are going thru the motions
- Sea showed pride last week vs NE forcing Pats to win at the gun
- Sea has the motivation to get Holmgren a few wins before retirement
- take Hawks

Buff (6-7) @ NYJ (8-5) NYJ -7.5
- what happened to JETS last 2 weeks?
- Jets 4 for 21 last 2 weeks on 3rd down conversions; that just wont get it done
- Bills are just inept; 6 pts last 2 games
- Favre gets the ship righted against weak Bills team
- take JETS

Tenn (12-1) @ Hou (6-7) Tenn -3
- interesting matchup
- Texans on 3 game winning streak
- Van Den Bosch is out and Haynesworth questionable
- Hou lost first game vs Tenn by turning the ball over 3 times and making mental mistakes with dropped balls; they played pretty hard otherwise against the Titans
- Hou got a gift last week @ GB turning the ball over 4 times and still winning
- if Texans can stop the turnovers they can make a game of it
- a 12-1 team should be more than a FG fave; shows that Tenn are the worst 12-1 we have seen in years
- take Texans to cover and pull the upset

Pitt (10-3) @ Balt (9-4) Balt -2.5
- GAME OF THE WEEK
- smash mouth all game long; only thing make this better would be for snow
- fantastic defenses on both teams
- Pitt 5-1 on road this year; as the saying goes "defense travels well"
- going to come down to FG kickers and mistakes; whomever makes the fewest wins it
- biggest difference is that Ravens can throw the ball
- hard game to pick can take either team but I will take Ravens by FG at home as Pitt is 0-5 last 5 years going to Baltimore

Den (8-5) @ Car (10-3) Car -7.5
- Car on short week following Mon win
- Car 300 yards on great TB rush D last week; that was a shocker
- Car 6-1 last 7; no one talking much about this team
- Den can clinch with a win; let's take Broncos in the upset

SD (5-8) @ KC (2-11) SD -6
- how bad are the Bolts?
- LT 25 rushes last week and didnt get 100 yards; mistake keeping him and letting Turner walk
- SD won't be able to cover Gonzalez; Thigpen will throw 300+ yards against SD #30 pass D
- take KC not only to cover but to win outright

Minn (8-5) @ Ariz (8-5) Ariz -3
- two 8-5 teams; two div leaders (Ariz actually clinched div)
- Ariz doesn't run the ball at all; they are not even trying anymore
- Minn DL will be able to push the pocket into Warner's face and Allen will be able to pass rush from the ends
- Minn pass D has allowed only 12 TD which is 4th in the NFL
- Minn 7-2 last 9 games overall after 1-3 start
- even with Jackson starting at QB I think he will do enough for the win; the Minn D will make sure of that
- take Minny and the points and money line to win outright
- UPSET SPECIAL
- BEST BET

NE (8-5) @ Oak (3-10) NE -6.5
- NE should be able to rush against a soft Oak rush D
- that should set up play action pass for Moss to beat Oak deep late in the ball game
- Pats are the better team and huge motivation tied with Jets and Mia atop the AFC East
- take Pats give up the points

NYG (11-2) @ Dal (8-5) Dal -3
- is that line a misprint
- NYG are by far the better team and getting points on the road
- yes Romo is 3-0 vs NYG but this is a different G-Men he is facing now; confident off SB win
- the WR are creating a mess in Big D and Jerry Jones isn't helping matters
- Romo once again last week vs Pitt proved in big games that he "chokes"
- even with Jacobs out expect lots of running by the Giants
- like the Steelers above D travels well
- take G-Men to put the Boys out of playoff hunt

Clev (4-9) @ Phil (7-5-1) Phil -14
- oh god what a pathetic matchup for Monday Nite
- Phil beats good teams and loses to bad ones
- but Clev has Kent Dorsey at QB
- just hate this game; let's take Brownies to at least cover


To recap here are my plays for this weekend in order of preference:

Minn +3
NYG +3
Mia -6


Keefer

NO @ Chi - Thurs 12/11

NO @ CHI Chi -3 O/U 45

- bigger factor COLD COLD COLD; possibility of snow
- all cold weather games last week went under the total
- NO#1 pass off vs Chi #28 pass def but if weather holds then this will be less of a mismatch
- NO not same team out of dome
- Chi D blitzes as much as anyone in the NFL and Brees buries teams with quick releases
- special teams are the x-factor with NO 28th ranked punt coverage trying to stop Devin Hester
- Bush is back for NO; will Bears be able to cover on their punt team too
- cold ball means turnovers and whomever keeps the ball will win the game
- both teams 7-6 but NO needs this game more than Chi
- take NO in a mild upset
- BET is UNDER 45; take the total today before it gets hit tomorrow once the cold weather arrives

Keefer

NFL Week 14

Ok so the bad Raidahs showed up again against SD; but why not take a chance on a big underdog. SF showed that last week as my upset special won outright.

Onto Week 14

Jax @ Chi -6.5
- biggest factor in this game is the weather; cold, windy off Lake Michigan
- Jax doesn't get any pressure on QB and amazingly Del Rio team that is not tough anymore
- Chi leads league in takeaways and fumbles could be a problem if ball is slick and hard
- Jax 3 of 4 wins are actually on the road; so maybe they are just having an offseason
- due to weather I like this game to go well under the 40 total and the Bears to win a low scoring game but Jax to cover

Minn -10 @ Det
- ok I really wanted to take Det in this game
- Williams boys will be playing due to a judge stopping NFL suspensions; strange thing is that if judge rules in favour this week the Vikes are screwed as suspension will be still 4 games and they will miss the first playoff game...don't you think just take the suspension
- Peterson will have huge day against Det last in rush D
- Det OL has allowed most sacks in NFL and now they get to see Allen
- take Vikes big

Hou @ GB -6
- see above; biggest factor will be the same weather system in Chicago
- GB rush D has allowed 8 TD last 2 games; expect lots of Slaton in the cold
- Schaub is back but Rosenfels did a decent job while he was out
- Hou DB give up big plays and you have a warm weather/dome team going to cold Lambeau; last week Car same situation and upset GB but they are different team than the Texans
- take GB to get back off the mat and give up the points

Clev @ Tenn -13.5
- Tenn #6 rush off has struggled lately until they saw the Lions
- Dorsey is now Clev QB and gets the Tenn D; good luck with all that
- would take Brownies to cover but Tenn wins this game and they clich the div; Titans have motivation to blow this game out- Tenn big

Cin @ Indy -13.5
- thought last week Peyton would have his big day vs Clev
- Indy won last week without scoring an offensive TD
- Indy has won 5 straight despite all the injuries and all games by less than 7 pts
- this is game where Indy offense gets an explosion; Indy easy

Atla @ NO -3
- two teams almost the same; both are different teams at their own home sweet dome
- NO can pass and Atla can rush; whomever controls the clock will win this game
- take Saints at home as slight pick

Phil @ NYG -6.5
- Plaxico-gate; early $ went on Philly due to this but it's an overreaction and the 6.5 line now is above where it started at 6
- Giants just keep on rolling; losing guys and keep winning...will someone please give Coughlin his due as a great coach
- Westbrook is questionable and without him Uggles have no hope
- weather is another big factor with snowy/windy conditions expected
- should be grind it out game and that favours the G-Men
- Giants win and cover

Mia - Buff -1 @ TORONTO
- well it's snowing out and the dome will be closed; so much for Bills advantage when the Fish come up north in December
- Bills are just a bad team; pick them to lose last week and again this week
- Fish +1

KC @ Den -9
- KC has lost 7 straight at Den
- both teams are horrid on the defensive side
- Den coming off huge win @ Jets; could they be flat?
- don't think so as revenge for losing in week 4 at KC
- Den in high scoring blowout

NYJ -3.5 @ SF
- i'm giving my Jets some love now; for 2nd time in 3 weeks they are my BEST BET
- i luv these types of games; JETS after 2 huge wins come up flat at home against an inferior Den team and lose big
- SF an awful team coming off big win being 1st WC team to win in the eastern time zone
- SF won't have much incentive to keep this one close
- Jets get back on track and win big

NE -6.5 @ Sea
- well this was the original Sunday nite game; pulled now for Wash-Balt
- NE ran the ball decently last week against #1 D Pitt; now they get #22 rush D
- NE can't turn the ball over; 5 last week vs Pitt
- NE secondary allowed 21 TD but without H'back Hawks wont be a threat that way
- ever since Kearney went out there has been no pass rush for Sea and their DB have been getting burned
- NE needs this game and expect Cassel to get back to over 400+ yards passing
- weather will be rainy which will be fine for the cold weather Pats
- Pats big

StL @ Ariz -14
- Ariz should be able to pass all game long against #22 StL pass D
- Ariz wins and div is theirs
- take Cards

Dal @ Pitt -3
- ok Boys need this game more
- Pitt allowed 10 pts in each of last 3 games
- weather is factor here too; Boys skill guys won't be able to finesse in the cold windy snowy weather
- Dal secondary gives up big plays and Roth could attack them deep
- only chance I would give Dal is if Barber was playing but he is not
- tough teams win in Dec; who is toughest here?
- take Pitt

Wash @ Balt -5.5
- beltway game
- no one is talking about the Ravens but they are quietly playing great football
- offense is scoring under rookie QB Flacco and the D is #2 vs pass and #3 vs rush
- no one wants to play this team come playoff time
- Portis is playing hurt again this week
- interesting stat Ravens scored 30+ pts 4 of last 5 games; Skins haven't scored 30 yet this year
- Ravens

TB @ Car -3
- both teams 9-3; huge divisional game
- simple fact in big games big D wins; look at last years SB for prime example
- TB 17 Int is 3rd in NFL and Delhomme can be forced into bad throws
- TB like Ravens are quietly playing well under the radar; since Garcia back in as starter the Bucs are 6-1
- take TB on the road


Keefer