NFL Week 15

Week 14 7-9
Overall 104-101-3
Week 15 0-0-1 (after thurs push)

Onto rest of Week 15

Motivation is what drives teams this time of year; teams that are out of it will they play hard as the spoilers or lay down. Teams that already in or battling for playoffs will they come up big at the toughest time of year. This is where you separate the pretenders from the contenders; let's get it rolling for Week 15.

GB (5-8) @ Jax (4-9) GB -2.5
- two playoff teams from a year ago both with hugely disappointing seasons
- GB losing at Lambeau with regularity and Jax since losing both starting guards and center early in the year have never found any consistent offense
- Jax gives up big pass plays; favours Rodgers air game
- Jax no passing game of their own; Gerrard only 11 TD passing against a GB secondary that has 18 INT
- hard to know who is motivated in this one
- take the points and Jax wins at home

Det (0-13) @ Indy (9-4) Indy -17
- 100% mismatch
- only thing Det has going for them is Calvin Johnson and Indy has only given up 1 TD all season over 20 yards; no TD allowed in any form in last 2
- give up the points Indy keeps rolling

Wash (7-6) @ Cin (1-11-1) Wash -7
- Skins playoff hopes are pretty much done for; after 6-2 start are 1-4 since
- Portis called out his coach Zorn last week and is running hurt
- Cin 12 turnovers in last 6 games
- Wash is the better team but has Zorn lost this team now
- windy conditions could play havoc with kicking games
- take Bungles to cover

TB (9-4) @ Atla (8-5) Atla -3
- Home teams in NFC South are 10-0 in divisional games
- TB coming off short week losing @ Car last Monday Nite
- last matchup TB had 4 sacks and 2 INT against Ryan
- Turner only 42 yards rushing last game vs TB
- Atla problems stopping run last week in NO
- this Falcons team is just different inside that dome; take Falcons in close one

SF (5-8) @ Mia (8-5) Mia -6
- can SF win 3 straight against AFC East teams; can the Niners be the team that determines the AFC East champ
- Mia 6-1 in last 7
- SF 3-1 under Mike Singletary
- SF don't travel much to Mia and haven't won there since the mid 70s
- warm/windy conditions which shouldn't affect "The Chad" as he can't throw past the line of scrimmage anyways
- I can't see SF coming up with 3 big games in a row; travel across country will wear them out; take Fish

Sea (2-11) @ StL (2-11) Sea -2.5
- here is the ultimate motivation game; who wants this one more
- StL have thrown in the towel and are going thru the motions
- Sea showed pride last week vs NE forcing Pats to win at the gun
- Sea has the motivation to get Holmgren a few wins before retirement
- take Hawks

Buff (6-7) @ NYJ (8-5) NYJ -7.5
- what happened to JETS last 2 weeks?
- Jets 4 for 21 last 2 weeks on 3rd down conversions; that just wont get it done
- Bills are just inept; 6 pts last 2 games
- Favre gets the ship righted against weak Bills team
- take JETS

Tenn (12-1) @ Hou (6-7) Tenn -3
- interesting matchup
- Texans on 3 game winning streak
- Van Den Bosch is out and Haynesworth questionable
- Hou lost first game vs Tenn by turning the ball over 3 times and making mental mistakes with dropped balls; they played pretty hard otherwise against the Titans
- Hou got a gift last week @ GB turning the ball over 4 times and still winning
- if Texans can stop the turnovers they can make a game of it
- a 12-1 team should be more than a FG fave; shows that Tenn are the worst 12-1 we have seen in years
- take Texans to cover and pull the upset

Pitt (10-3) @ Balt (9-4) Balt -2.5
- GAME OF THE WEEK
- smash mouth all game long; only thing make this better would be for snow
- fantastic defenses on both teams
- Pitt 5-1 on road this year; as the saying goes "defense travels well"
- going to come down to FG kickers and mistakes; whomever makes the fewest wins it
- biggest difference is that Ravens can throw the ball
- hard game to pick can take either team but I will take Ravens by FG at home as Pitt is 0-5 last 5 years going to Baltimore

Den (8-5) @ Car (10-3) Car -7.5
- Car on short week following Mon win
- Car 300 yards on great TB rush D last week; that was a shocker
- Car 6-1 last 7; no one talking much about this team
- Den can clinch with a win; let's take Broncos in the upset

SD (5-8) @ KC (2-11) SD -6
- how bad are the Bolts?
- LT 25 rushes last week and didnt get 100 yards; mistake keeping him and letting Turner walk
- SD won't be able to cover Gonzalez; Thigpen will throw 300+ yards against SD #30 pass D
- take KC not only to cover but to win outright

Minn (8-5) @ Ariz (8-5) Ariz -3
- two 8-5 teams; two div leaders (Ariz actually clinched div)
- Ariz doesn't run the ball at all; they are not even trying anymore
- Minn DL will be able to push the pocket into Warner's face and Allen will be able to pass rush from the ends
- Minn pass D has allowed only 12 TD which is 4th in the NFL
- Minn 7-2 last 9 games overall after 1-3 start
- even with Jackson starting at QB I think he will do enough for the win; the Minn D will make sure of that
- take Minny and the points and money line to win outright
- UPSET SPECIAL
- BEST BET

NE (8-5) @ Oak (3-10) NE -6.5
- NE should be able to rush against a soft Oak rush D
- that should set up play action pass for Moss to beat Oak deep late in the ball game
- Pats are the better team and huge motivation tied with Jets and Mia atop the AFC East
- take Pats give up the points

NYG (11-2) @ Dal (8-5) Dal -3
- is that line a misprint
- NYG are by far the better team and getting points on the road
- yes Romo is 3-0 vs NYG but this is a different G-Men he is facing now; confident off SB win
- the WR are creating a mess in Big D and Jerry Jones isn't helping matters
- Romo once again last week vs Pitt proved in big games that he "chokes"
- even with Jacobs out expect lots of running by the Giants
- like the Steelers above D travels well
- take G-Men to put the Boys out of playoff hunt

Clev (4-9) @ Phil (7-5-1) Phil -14
- oh god what a pathetic matchup for Monday Nite
- Phil beats good teams and loses to bad ones
- but Clev has Kent Dorsey at QB
- just hate this game; let's take Brownies to at least cover


To recap here are my plays for this weekend in order of preference:

Minn +3
NYG +3
Mia -6


Keefer